Comparison of deterministic, stochastic and fuzzy logic uncertainty modelling for capacity extension projects of DI/WFI pharmaceutical plant utilities with variable/dynamic demand

The last 30 years have seen Fuzzy Logic (FL) emerging as a method either complementing or challenging stochastic methods as the traditional method of modelling uncertainty. But the circumstances under which FL or stochastic methods should be used are shrouded in disagreement, because the areas of application of statistical and FL methods are overlapping with differences in opinion as to when which method should be used. Lacking are practically relevant case studies comparing these two methods. This work compares stochastic and FL methods for the assessment of spare capacity on the example of pharmaceutical high purity water (HPW) utility systems. The goal of this study was to find the most appropriate method modelling uncertainty in industrial scale HPW systems. The results provide evidence which suggests that stochastic methods are superior to the methods of FL in simulating uncertainty in chemical plant utilities including HPW systems in typical cases whereby extreme events, for example peaks in demand, or day-to-day variation rather than average values are of interest. The average production output or other statistical measures may, for instance, be of interest in the assessment of workshops. Furthermore the results indicate that the stochastic model should be used only if found necessary by a deterministic simulation. Consequently, this thesis concludes that either deterministic or stochastic methods should be used to simulate uncertainty in chemical plant utility systems and by extension some process system because extreme events or the modelling of day-to-day variation are important in capacity extension projects. Other reasons supporting the suggestion that stochastic HPW models are preferred to FL HPW models include: 1. The computer code for stochastic models is typically less complex than a FL models, thus reducing code maintenance and validation issues. 2. In many respects FL models are similar to deterministic models. Thus the need for a FL model over a deterministic model is questionable in the case of industrial scale HPW systems as presented here (as well as other similar systems) since the latter requires simpler models. 3. A FL model may be difficult to "sell" to an end-user as its results represent "approximate reasoning" a definition of which is, however, lacking. 4. Stochastic models may be applied with some relatively minor modifications on other systems, whereas FL models may not. For instance, the stochastic HPW system could be used to model municipal drinking water systems, whereas the FL HPW model should or could not be used on such systems. This is because the FL and stochastic model philosophies of a HPW system are fundamentally different. The stochastic model sees schedule and volume uncertainties as random phenomena described by statistical distributions based on either estimated or historical data. The FL model, on the other hand, simulates schedule uncertainties based on estimated operator behaviour e.g. tiredness of the operators and their working schedule. But in a municipal drinking water distribution system the notion of "operator" breaks down. 5. Stochastic methods can account for uncertainties that are difficult to model with FL. The FL HPW system model does not account for dispensed volume uncertainty, as there appears to be no reasonable method to account for it with FL whereas the stochastic model includes volume uncertainty.

L’isola delle madri assenti: tracce di presenza femminile nella narrativa storica siciliana contemporanea (1990-2007)

The watershed constituted by the historical novels of Leonardo Sciascia (1921- 1989), Vincenzo Consolo (1933-2012) and Andrea Camilleri (born 1925), are starting points for analysing subsequent writings of history in Sicily, particularly those that deal with the hermeneutical function of literature as a means of critically reading official historiography. Nevertheless, whereas ample critical attention has been paid to male writers, whose work is deemed ‘mainstream’, there has been insufficient analysis of the role of female authors in relation to literary representations of Sicilian history. By considering the distinctiveness of the Sicilian literary tradition, the thesis identifies a series of transformations of the genre which have occurred in recent years within the context of feminine writing, and examines the historical narratives of contemporary Sicilian writers Maria Attanasio, Silvana La Spina and Maria Rosa Cutrufelli produced between 1990 and 2007. The study problematizes the lack of critical debate about feminine narratives in Sicily, and places these works in relation to developments in gender and genre theory, focusing particularly on Margherita Ganeri’s studies on the historical genre and the canon. After an introductory chapter which argues the case for examining Sicilian female historical fiction as a distinct literary practice, the subsequent chapters feature textual analyses of each author’s main historical fiction works, supporting the reading of the texts with theoretical readings, including the micro-history of Carlo Ginzburg, the écriture féminine of Hélène Cixous, the abjection theory of Julia Kristeva, the theoretical propositions on “experience” by Joan Wallach Scott and Teresa De Lauretis, and the theory of gender as performance proposed by Judith Butler. The analyses underline the importance of the authors’ distinct feminine perspective over Sicilian history and ultimately suggest that the three writers represent significant examples of a “nomadic writing” to be placed outside the Sicilian male literary tradition.

Nuove intersezioni: crimine e storia nella narrativa Italiana al cambio di millennio

My research investigates a recent tendency in Italian literature, characterized by elements of renewal within the novel-writing tradition and of discontinuity with postmodern culture. It proposes an interpretation of the genres of the historical novel and crime fiction in the last fifteen years, in order to underline the important role played by these types of narrative in revitalizing contemporary Italian literature. These modalities of writing are considered both individually and in their connections beyond a traditional notion of genre, emphasizing those characteristics which may be assumed as irreconcilable with a postmodern approach to fiction and those which, furthermore, seem to indicate attempts to take a new course. In particular, my study analyses the recent literary tendency to combine the elements of ‘crime’ and ‘history’ in order to represent political and social reality, and how the works examined relate to postmodern narrative. For this reason, I pay particular attention to the relationship between literature and the past and to the socio-political aspects connected with the praxis of narrating, offering an original interpretation of the way in which the authors studied engage with these characteristics.

Application of signal detection methods to fisheries management

The abundance of many commercially important fish stocks are declining and this has led to widespread concern on the performance of traditional approach in fisheries management. Quantitative models are used for obtaining estimates of population abundance and the management advice is based on annual harvest levels (TAC), where only a certain amount of catch is allowed from specific fish stocks. However, these models are data intensive and less useful when stocks have limited historical information. This study examined whether empirical stock indicators can be used to manage fisheries. The relationship between indicators and the underlying stock abundance is not direct and hence can be affected by disturbances that may account for both transient and persistent effects. Methods from Statistical Process Control (SPC) theory such as the Cumulative Sum (CUSUM) control charts are useful in classifying these effects and hence they can be used to trigger management response only when a significant impact occurs to the stock biomass. This thesis explores how empirical indicators along with CUSUM can be used for monitoring, assessment and management of fish stocks. I begin my thesis by exploring various age based catch indicators, to identify those which are potentially useful in tracking the state of fish stocks. The sensitivity and response of these indicators towards changes in Spawning Stock Biomass (SSB) showed that indicators based on age groups that are fully selected to the fishing gear or Large Fish Indicators (LFIs) are most useful and robust across the range of scenarios considered. The Decision-Interval (DI-CUSUM) and Self-Starting (SS-CUSUM) forms are the two types of control charts used in this study. In contrast to the DI-CUSUM, the SS-CUSUM can be initiated without specifying a target reference point (‘control mean’) to detect out-of-control (significant impact) situations. The sensitivity and specificity of SS-CUSUM showed that the performances are robust when LFIs are used. Once an out-of-control situation is detected, the next step is to determine how much shift has occurred in the underlying stock biomass. If an estimate of this shift is available, they can be used to update TAC by incorporation into Harvest Control Rules (HCRs). Various methods from Engineering Process Control (EPC) theory were tested to determine which method can measure the shift size in stock biomass with the highest accuracy. Results showed that methods based on Grubb’s harmonic rule gave reliable shift size estimates. The accuracy of these estimates can be improved by monitoring a combined indicator metric of stock-recruitment and LFI because this may account for impacts independent of fishing. The procedure of integrating both SPC and EPC is known as Statistical Process Adjustment (SPA). A HCR based on SPA was designed for DI-CUSUM and the scheme was successful in bringing out-of-control fish stocks back to its in-control state. The HCR was also tested using SS-CUSUM in the context of data poor fish stocks. Results showed that the scheme will be useful for sustaining the initial in-control state of the fish stock until more observations become available for quantitative assessments.